Vienna Prediction Model calculates risk of venous thrombosis

6 September 2013

Researchers at the Medical University of Vienna have developed a model to calculate the risk of patients suffering a recurrence of a venous thrombosis using three factors.

The three factors are: the patient’s gender, the location of the thrombosis and a bio-marker known as the D-dimer, which is the product of protein separation. The D-dimer level in the blood is of major significance in the diagnosis or exclusion of deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolisms, but also in predicting the risk of the condition recurring.

In Austria, around 15,000 people a year develop a venous thrombosis, the occlusion of a vein that can result in a pulmonary embolism. A clot breaks free from a vein and travels via the bloodstream to the lungs, where it blocks vessels.

The recurrence of a venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism can only be prevented through intensive treatment with clot-preventing medications. Many patients are therefore advised to take long-term therapy. This therapy, however, means the daily and in some cases lifelong consumption of medications which also entail a major risk of bleeding, which can sometimes even be fatal.

The model was developed as part of the world's largest study on thrombosis, the Austrian Study on Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism (AUREC)